Jannik Sinner is the big winner of the Australian Open draw in a half lacking in his main rivals. Tennis tipster Gavin Mair has picked an exciting young American to enjoy a good run in the draw’s second quarter.
- World number one Sinner should coast to semis
- Concentrate on second and fourth quarter for bets
- Big game Shelton value to make his mark at 13/1
Stroll for Sinner
Sinner was already the favourite to win a second consecutive Australian Open crown, and has shortened from 7/5 since the draw.
It is difficult to imagine any of the higher profile players in this section getting the better of Sinner. The second highest seed is Australia’s Alex De Minaur who is a reasonable shout to make a first quarter-final at his home Grand Slam but his 9/1 price to win quarter one is a fair indication of the massive challenge of overcoming the Italian who leads their head to head by nine wins to zero.
The second tier of players includes Stefanos Tsitsipas 14/1 and Holger Rune 14/1, but both are lacking in inspiration currently. Matteo Berrettini 20/1 and Hubert Hurkacz 20/1 have the tools to be a threat, but likewise neither has shown recent form to suggest a strong run is on the cards.
It is a quarter lacking depth of quality and it is very likely that Sinner wins this quarter at the unappealing price of 1/3.
Shelton can surprise
I am keen to challenge quarter two’s highest seed Taylor Fritz.
The American has risen to a career high world number four ranking, which is a merited position for his hard work and continual improvement over recent years.
The foundations of his game are to serve big and back that up with ground stroke stability. It is a formula that generates more wins than losses but is not the most exciting and can be bettered by a flashier opponent in good form.
You can make a case for several of the players in the second quarter as having the potential to get the better of Fritz on a good day, and the option I find most appealing is Fritz’s compatriot Ben Shelton 13/1.
Many commentators recognise the high potential of Shelton who packs an almighty lefty serve and is very comfortable taking risk and swinging for his rewards under pressure. His week to week form can be up and down, but even on his off days his strong serve keeps him competitive.
He suffered a narrow defeat to wonderkid Jakub Mensik in Auckland this week, but played pretty well and doesn’t find an opponent with the young Czech’s talent in this section of the draw.
Three time finalist Daniil Medvedev is the market favourite to win this quarter at 15/8, but he has yet to play this season and was late to arrive in Australia due to the birth of his second child at the turn of the year.
Medvedev kept a low profile during the off-season, but he ended the 2024 campaign bereft of confidence and nursing a chronic shoulder issue that noticeably impacted his serving quality for much of the year.
Alternatives to win this quarter include the talented quartet of Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 13/2, Andrey Rublev 8/1, Frances Tiafoe 18/1 and Lorenzo Musetti 25/1.
Mpetshi Perricard serves huge and started the season as he finished the last, all but unplayable at his best. He rarely faces any danger on his serve over the course of a three set match but he has yet to show that he can maintain that endurance across the best of five format.
Rublev ended 2024 badly out of form and clearly disgruntled with life on court. His 2025 campaign got off to a nightmare start by losing the opening round as defending champion in Hong Kong.
Tiafoe and Musetti are unpredictable from match to match. Both are dripping in flair and quality and are very capable of reaching the final four. In the case of Tiafoe it is very difficult to pinpoint when or if he will spark into life, while Musetti’s best performances have been on the natural surfaces rather than on a hard court.
All things told, Shelton has a lot of upside and I find the 13/1 a tempting proposition in an open quarter.
Djokovic vs Alcaraz
If everything goes to plan the quarter-final will be contested between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic.
Last season the players engaged in a couple of epic battles, celebrating one significant victory apiece. For Carlitos it was the Wimbledon final, and for Novak Olympic glory that secured the one missing honour of his storied career.
The market believes this duo are a step ahead of the opposition in this quarter with Alcaraz priced at 1/1 and Djokovic 9/5 to make the semi-finals.
You can’t rule out an off-day from either, but it seems likely that this duo will meet for their latest blockbuster encounter in the last eight.
The chances of the ever improving Brit Jack Draper 9/1, Brisbane champion Jiri Lehecka 20/1, the underrated and highly dangerous Tomas Machac 33/1 and Reilly Opelka 33/1, who defeated Djokovic last week, should not be discounted. But it is a tough ask for any of these players to defeat not one but two of the sport’s greatest players back to back.
Zverev vulnerable?
In the final quarter Alexander Zverev is priced as a far from attractive odds-on proposition to make the semi-finals 5/6.
The world number two has not arrived at this position by accident, but he is not a player to be trusted at such prices in Grand Slams.
The German has yet to bag a major title and has produced more disappointing performances than good ones over the years at the sport’s biggest events. At the Australian Open, he has only reached a quarter-final or better in three of his nine appearances.
During the build-up he has been complaining of an ongoing elbow injury, while he withdrew from his final United Cup match due to a bicep problem.
There are several talented names in this quarter that could be primed to have a run, especially if we witness a Zverev underperformance.
Tommy Paul 9/1 has been knocking on the door of the top 10 for the last few seasons and has the ability to reach the final four. He has looked very sharp since arriving Down Under.
I have been very impressed by the level shown by Felix Auger-Aliassime these past few weeks. He is priced at 13/1 to win this quarter, which is less appealing than the 100/1 I tipped for him to win the whole thing.
Tennis’ bad boy Nick Kyrgios 14/1 is making his return to the sport news after an 18 month injury absence, but he is struggling to get up to full fitness with one problem or another bothering him.
Future stars Arthur Fils 16/1 and Jakub Mensik 20/1 are more than capable of reaching the final four, and I’m certain they will do that several times at least over the course of their career. Both have shown their talent in the early weeks of the season, but neither has reward for their efforts as they continue trying to navigate the learning curve.
You could pick from any of these players to go a run and I wouldn’t put you off it, but I have no strong opinions on where the value is in this quarter.